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Machine Learning gets all the marketing hype, but are we overlooking Bayesian Networks? Here's a deeper look at why "Bayes Nets" are underrated - especially when it comes to addressing probability and ...

Every new piece of evidence reshapes what we thought we knew, and probability trees make that transformation visible. This is ...

Observing, gathering knowledge and making predictions are the foundations of the scientific process. The accuracy of our predictions depends on the quality of our present knowledge and accuracy of our ...

Evidence can modify our beliefs, but the impact it has depends upon those beliefs. An 18th century priest has something to say about that, in what could be seen as a mathematical formulation of the ...

This project estimates time-varying market beta for a Korean equity ETF using Bayesian conditional beta models and a two-regime Markov switching framework. The analysis focuses on whether market ...

We suggest a new method for integrating volatility information for estimating the value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk of a portfolio. This new method is developed from the perspective of ...